The first week of the war launched by the Genocidal-Epstein coalition against Iran has not delivered the shortcut victory the aggressor aimed for, despite heavy destruction and losses. The war has drawn numerous countries into a circle of fire through Iran’s retaliatory strikes—a scenario many thought Tehran would not dare to risk.

US President Donald Trump’s ‘strategy book’ has produced numerous errors. A scenario was followed to kill high-level cadres, starting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, leaving the country leaderless and dragging it into a rapid collapse; it did not work. Iran maintains its leadership order within its own constitutional rules. To crush command-and-control, almost all headquarters and facilities of the armed forces and the Revolutionary Guards were hit. No ‘headless’ state emerged in either defence or offence.

The most important objective of this war was to destroy missile production facilities, underground depots, and launch pads. Israeli Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir claims they have destroyed more than 60 per cent of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers and 80 per cent of its air defence systems. According to US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine, the number of ballistic missiles launched by Iran has decreased by 86 per cent compared to the first day. The number of kamikaze UAVs has dropped by 73 per cent. Thus, Iran has no choice but to surrender!

However, although the number of launches has decreased, Iran is conducting qualitative retaliations. It closed the first week with a 23rd wave of retaliation.

According to the design of this war, when police stations, Basij, and intelligence centres were hit, a security vacuum would be created; this would allow dissidents to take to the streets and seize power.

Indeed, the people took to the streets, but not to tear things down—rather to mourn Khamenei. The fact that Khamenei was killed not in a bunker but in his residence with family members provided a new and powerful symbol for a system experiencing a crisis of legitimacy. Khamenei’s call for ‘Karbala-like resistance’ found existence through his absence.

The goal is to establish dominance by opening ‘free’ air corridors over the country, but they are not yet in a position to declare this. Since the number of downed Hermes, Heron, and MQ-9 type UCAVs has exceeded 40, air defence systems are still responding.

In exchange for the heavy destruction, there are also symbolic victories for Iran. Chief among these are the strikes on the CIA station and the American Embassy in Riyadh, the AN/TPY-2 radar system in the United Arab Emirates, the ‘over-the-horizon’ FPS132 radar in Qatar, and radars in Kuwait and Jordan.

The shield network created from Haifa to Dubai to protect Israel has been partially blinded. Seventeen US bases in the region were hit. These are not insignificant results for untouchable hegemonic arrogance. We cannot see the picture at the strategic sites targeted in Israel because a military blackout is being applied.

The US regional military deployment architecture is taking a blow. Furthermore, American protection in the Gulf countries is collapsing. They have seen that providing bases to the US to target Iran is very costly and dangerous.

While efforts to expand the coalition continue with the perception that “Iran is bombing Arab countries,” countries like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, fearing this will turn into a war that destroys economic infrastructure, are approaching both Iran and the Trump administration. Qatar’s warning that ‘World economies could collapse’ is shared by other countries.

According to the Trump administration, the navy is at the bottom of the sea, the air force no longer exists, and Iran is being pummelled on the ground. The Strait of Hormuz has also been dealt with. However, Iran is striking tankers that attempt to pass.

The plan to overthrow the regime via aerial bombardment did not work. Now, they are cooking up a plan to put a limited number of American soldiers on the ground and have Iranian Kurds fight against the regime. Mossad has been working with Iranian dissidents for a long time. It is also reported that Israel promised autonomy to the Kurds in these meetings. According to information leaked to the American media, the CIA has also been involved since last year to prepare Iranian Kurds for today.

On the second day of the attacks, Trump called Iraqi Kurdish leaders and threatened them, saying, “You are either with us or with Iran.” Later, he explicitly stated he would be pleased if the Kurds entered the war.

The US plans to turn the Iraqi Kurdistan Region into a supply corridor for weapons and militia shipments. What it wants from Erbil and Sulaymaniyah is for the field to be opened, transitions not to be hindered, and for assistance to be provided in this mobilisation. Iranian Kurdish groups, who have formed a six-party coalition, demand firm guarantees for ‘the day after’, heavy weapons, a no-fly zone, and for Iran’s military and security presence to be thoroughly bombed before they act. Otherwise, they say it will be a suicide mission.

For Iran, collaborating with the enemy in an existential war could make the Kurds targets of hatred and attacks. If the armed rebellion fails, if the US withdraws, or if it reaches an agreement with Tehran, the Kurds will be abandoned once again.

Former US Ambassador to Baghdad Zalmay Khalilzad says that instead of a large military landing on the ground as in Iraq, the Afghanistan example could be followed. Namely, providing air support to local forces and coordination through command-and-control on the ground.

The offer to have the Kurds fight puts the Iraqi Kurdistan Region in a vice. Iran clearly communicated that if it partners in this plan, it will strike the strategic assets of the Kurdistan Region.

The Iraqi government is also on edge. While the US bombs Hashd al-Shaabi forces, Iraq fears being completely dragged into conflicts. For now, a consensus has emerged from the meetings between Erbil and Baghdad stating that “Iraq will not be allowed to be a launchpad against Iran.”

Trump’s roadmap is blurred and inconsistent. He does not promise democracy to anyone either. While boasting of killing 48 Iranian leaders at once, he said they had also eliminated potential alternatives they could work with. Later, he says “no” to Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Khamenei, as a replacement. Then, he says he is not against a new supreme leader depending on who it is—as long as they accept the conditions of surrender. He compares Iran to Venezuela; he is looking for a Delcy Rodríguez in Tehran. “As we did with Delcy in Venezuela, I also need to be involved in the appointment process,” he says. Ignorant and arrogant! When the US kidnapped Nicolás Maduro, Rodríguez took his place. This was not Trump’s choice; it was the mandate of the Venezuelan constitution. He says the leader he seeks does not need to be a democrat; someone who treats the US and Israel well is enough… Ultimately, he says, “There will be no agreement with Iran other than unconditional surrender.”

Since Iran has risked this war to avoid surrendering, would it accept humiliation? Those mourning for Khamenei respond to this with the slogan: “We fight, we die, we do not accept humiliation!”

This war will have other consequences. China is taking an X-ray of American military capacity. The rapid depletion of the ammunition stockpile and logistical crises reveal the gaps in the strategy to encircle China. Should the war be prolonged, the US will have to shift its stocks from the Indo-Pacific Command to the Middle East, which means the power equation against China will remain weak for the next few years. In other words, the path to the Great Wall of China is opening.

The oil and natural gas resources of Russia, which is under Western sanctions, are becoming more valuable. That is to say, Russian energy is breaking its chains.

Additionally, regional partnerships may have to redefine their relationships. The defence systems they acquired by putting billions of dollars into the pockets of American arms giants do not provide enough protection. To compensate, they will either continue their servility and keep Trump happy or look to alternatives like China and Russia. Henceforth, there is no longer any attraction in racing to provide bases to America. The crisis of those who lamented, “How did we lose the hosting of CENTCOM to Qatar,” may now subside.

Another result: many inferences were made that the Resistance Axis had been completely crushed with the collapse of the regime in Syria, the liquidation of Hezbollah’s leadership cadres, and the pressure on Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq. Despite the ceasefire, Hezbollah, targeted 15,400 times in 15 months, has returned. In response to Israel’s evacuation orders for the Beqaa, the south of the Litani River, and the Dahiyeh region of Beirut, Hezbollah did the same for the settlements in northern Israel. In other words, there has been a return to the pre-2024 engagement game. The Israelis seem quite bewildered. Hezbollah is targeting the Haifa, Ramat David, Meron, Tel HaShomer, Ein Shemer, and Tel Nof bases with UAV fleets. It is hunting Merkava tanks in the border areas. And finally, it repelled an airborne landing in Nabi Chit. Israelis have begun to voice again the fear scenarios that the Radwan Force will carry out infiltration movements into Israel. According to them, Radwan was non-existent after losing its first, second, and third-tier commanders.

In Iraq, too, the suppression strategy has snapped. Hashd al-Shaabi elements are entering the war one by one.

In Yemen, it is predicted that Ansarullah will pull the trigger if Saudi Arabia and the UAE enter the war against Iran. This stance serves as a different lever in the war.

Iran sees emerging from this war by preventing the collapse of the order and the partition of the country as its threshold for ‘victory’. For permanent deterrence, it is trying to increase the costs that Israel and the US will pay. It predicts that if the war is prolonged, the enemy’s defence stocks will be exhausted and it will find a chance for an honourable exit. Until that point, it does not seem inclined to sit at the negotiating table.

Trump’s prayer sessions, who thinks raining destruction and death from the sky is a military strategy, show that he needs a divine guise. For Zionist-Christian inflation, it is time for Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to show his “Deus vult” (God wills it) tattoos. This is the battle cry of the First Crusade. They see the attack as “a command from God,” the war as Armageddon, and Trump as the commander commissioned by Jesus. It means they need this nonsense while setting the Middle East on fire. They are having difficulty selling this war domestically.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also announced what Iranian honour commands: “Let them take the dream of our unconditional surrender to their graves. We will stand tall until our last breath.”

Now, for these Iranians, this is not just a war of existence, but a war of dignity!