Özlem Temena

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As the sixth day of operations by the United States and Israel against Iran passes, the eyes of the world are on Tehran. In Van, which shares one of the longest land borders with Iran, there has been no extraordinary anxiety or tension for days. While a quiet anticipation prevails in the city, refugee diplomacy between the European Union, the United Nations, and the AKP government has gained momentum.

The meeting between Ursula von der Leyen and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has had a wide impact on social media. Von der Leyen's statements led to comments that Turkey will once again become a central country in a potential wave of migration.

While numerous journalists in the city look for clues regarding a possible refugee crisis, the local population says that Van is not ready for a mass migration. The primary reason for this is the economy and unemployment. For now, there is no concern about the presence of Iranians in the city; however, it is expressed that if thousands of refugees arrive, scenes similar to the Syrian crisis could occur. This is because, despite the war approaching step by step, no evaluation has come from the government side other than the statement: "Crossings at the borders are at normal levels." Refugee organisations located in Istanbul are trying to follow and understand the situation from a distance.

Due to Ramadan, shutters are half-closed during the day. With the evening call to prayer, the bazaar comes to life, and cafes fill up. Despite the war continuing kilometres away, there is no visible anxiety in the street. People are shopping, young people are drinking coffee, and taxis are operating. The border city is unexpectedly calm.

Yet, at this time of the year, Van is accustomed to a different kind of intensity. Before and after Newroz, thousands of Iranian tourists would arrive, hotels would fill up, and jewellers and shopping centres would become active. That crowd is not expected this year. The war has overshadowed the tourism season before it even began.

‘I hung the Persian signs on purpose’

Yunus Gönül, 40, who runs a small grocery shop with Persian signs hanging in the city centre, clearly explains the economic picture: “Iranians bring cash into the market. The people here are poor. No one has cash; everyone uses cards. I hung the Persian signs specifically. Because the cash is with the Iranians. Everyone thinks I am Iranian, but I am not.”

Gönül monitors the activity at the border closely. He believes that in the event of a mass migration, most Iranians will not stay in Van: “They wouldn't want to stop here. Most of them have relatives in Europe.”

When we ask about the possibility of Turkey entering into an agreement to keep Iranians in the country, he is cautious: “Then things would change. Van does not have the capacity to handle thousands of refugees. The economy is already weak. Unemployment is high. If competition increases, the public's reaction will also increase.”

He says the Persian signs are not causing problems for now but points to the cultural distance: “Even if Iranians open businesses, they work more privately. They don't want to be visible so as not to attract a reaction. Turks don't go where they go, and they don't really come where Turks go. There is trade here, but there is no cultural affinity.”

‘If the wealthy come, there will be no problem’

Mustafa Çiftçi, who runs a dessert shop in the city centre, is not against migration. He argues that the doors should be opened to those coming because of the war: “There is a war; in this situation, they can come of course. It won't be hard for us, but it will be hard for them; leaving one's home and country is not easy. However, the economy is bad. If thousands of people come, the infrastructure will not be enough. Arrangements must be made.”

A 45-year-old dental technician on the same street, who did not wish to give his name, says that migration will make the economy even worse: “We are already struggling to make ends meet. People are raising five children with 20,000 liras here. They are trying to survive on amounts you can't even imagine. In this situation, how will we carry the burden?”

He reminds us that the city has experienced conflicts and losses for many years: “We have already suffered a lot from war. Now there is a process, but we are not aware of what it is. No one consults us. In the past, MPs used to be in the street. Now, neither the people know the MPs, nor do the MPs know the people. How can we handle a war supported from the outside?”

‘Van is a migration route and this is not new’

According to Journalist Şenol Bali, who works on migration in the city and conducts field research particularly with migrant women and serves as the Manager of the NGO "Migrant Women Tell," the society in Van does not produce an exclusionary reflex against migrants. He states that it is a city that has developed a reflex for empathy due to many years of war.

“Van has been a migration route for many years. This has never changed. It has decreased or increased from time to time, but it has never changed. This is a primary route used by migrants from the Middle East, and even Africa, who want to go to Europe. The sociology of Van has not been a sociology that pushes away the migrants arriving until now, produces hate speech, or stands against them physically. This is a city that grew through migration in the '90s. People who have lived through that experience can look at those coming from outside with empathy.”

According to Bali, this situation can be progressed healthily; the arrivals of migrants can be secured with a comprehensive integration plan: “There will either be a buffer zone designed according to international humanitarian standards, or a management plan will be prepared that will not cause accumulation in the city. Both so that existing life does not become blocked and so that the arriving people can live in humanitarian conditions. Walls, ditches, and police measures did not end migration. In fact, they increased the tragedies experienced during migration. The issue is not just the recent tension in Iran. This migration line is the unchanging reality of the last 50-60 years. If a preparation is to be made, it should be made not just indexed to Iran, but against the general flow of people. The city is not ready for this right now.”

The Minister of Trade, Ömer Bolat, stated on the morning of 2 March that commercial freight transport continues in a controlled manner at the three border gates between Iran and Turkey, but daily passenger crossings have been mutually suspended.

On the other hand, in news featured in Bloomberg and Middle East Eye, claims were brought to the agenda that Turkey might establish a “buffer zone” in the west of the country to prevent a possible influx of refugees from Iran. The Center for Combating Disinformation, however, denied this claim in a post made on 25 February.