Kübra Kırımlı

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As the attacks by the US and Israel against Iran continue, tension in the region is steadily climbing. Journalist Erman Çete evaluated the strategy behind the attacks, the differences of opinion within NATO, and Turkey’s potential position. According to Çete, the moves towards Iran aim not only to reset regional balances but also to realign the allied bloc that is showing signs of disintegration. The US is trying to make its allies part of the war through military and political pressure.

Erman Çete explained that, in addition to trying to bring its allies into line with the attack on Iran, the US aims to cut off the energy routes of its greatest rival, China. Pointing out that there are cracks in NATO, Çete said, “The Turkey move is beyond NATO. It seems particularly related to how the US will draw NATO into this war and how it will provide support. Because a clear unity has not been established. Britain is wavering; Germany and France sometimes seem willing but sometimes they step on the brakes. They say, ‘We will not participate in any attack against Iran.’ But they currently stand in a position like, ‘However, we would be pleased if the US does it.’”

Explaining that the US wants to re-establish its hegemony, which has been shaken by such wars, Çete said, “These types of wars—the Ukraine war can also be included in this list—emerge as activities and efforts where American hegemony, which is said to have declined, brings the NATO collective back together by force. Currently, the US presents the attack on Iran as ensuring the security of Gulf countries in the Middle East. From another perspective, it has aims such as breaking China's influence in the region and undermining China's corridors directed towards Europe.”

"The division may become visible as the war progresses"

However, Çete stated that the weakening of Iran serves the interests of American allies, explaining the situation as follows: “The reduction of Iran’s power, the decrease of its military capacity, and its inability to obtain nuclear energy and nuclear weapons actually benefit American allies in the region, including the Gulf countries, Israel, and Turkey. Even if NATO, Israel, and the Gulf countries do not support it as a whole, they are pleased that Iran is weak. In this context, all of NATO’s intelligence technologies have now been placed at the service of the US-Israel coalition’s occupation attacks.”

Emphasising that the Iran war is an activity by the US—which says “Force breaks the game”—to close the cracks, Çete said, “At the same time, as the war progresses, it is possible for us to see the exact opposite results. The US could also face a process where divisions become even more visible among allies both in Europe and in the region.”

"The government wants a ‘larger share’ from the US"

Upon our question regarding the statements of President Erdoğan and MHP Leader Bahçeli, which attribute the war solely to Israel’s provocation of the US, Çete commented, “Israel has become a card that American allies in the region can easily use to advance their own agendas.” He added, “In fact, they are trying to say, ‘A new Middle East design with only Israel at its centre will not work.’ They look at the US with the view that ‘This will not benefit you either; we need to receive larger shares in the new alliance system so that the region can become easier to manage.’ The cracks within NATO gain Turkey some room for manoeuvre.”

"Provocation over the Kurdish issue is a great possibility"

Stating that Spain's decision not to allow the use of its bases was a surprise for the US, Çete said that the Trump administration has launched a major pressure campaign against Spain. Recalling what happened in Syria, Çete said, “It is a great possibility that they will create a kind of provocation, especially by using the Kurdish issue, to ensure Turkey’s potential intervention against Iran.”

Expressing that issues such as arming Kurdish groups and attacking Iran via Iraq could come to the agenda, Çete said, “Just like the Afrin and Olive Branch operations they prepared in Syria, and the operations carried out against Serekaniye. In this way, a position justifying Turkey’s military presence in Syria had been obtained. They had been able to unite Turkey and the domestic public in a kind of ‘war against terror.’ Turkey is now on the path to a similar provocation for Iran. At the head of this provocation stand the US and Israel.”

Çete noted that some pro-AKP think tanks are also spearheading this issue and have publications stating that “Turkey must somehow be involved in the Iran war.” He added, “In this context, there may be a division of labour between the AKP and MHP as good cop and bad cop. But as the process progresses, it is also possible that these will become real separations. Because the question of ‘How much can the Turkish economy withstand a possible war?’ must surely be sitting somewhere in the minds of those governing the state. Turkey’s much-needed Gulf capital and the need to appear in unity with them will also leave Turkey caught between two fires.”

"If Iran is taken over, another US base will be established next to us"

Stating that if Iran is taken over, a new American base will be established right next to Turkey, Çete said, “Whatever happened to the Syrian administration would happen to Iran. A new springboard for imperialism. Again, a form where chaos prevails and, moreover, it is not clear who will govern.”

Explaining that the “Venezuela model” is being discussed, Çete said, “Currently, Iran appears to be effectively in the hands of a kind of military administration, a war committee. If you ask whether that religious administration headed by Khamenei, the ‘Velayat-e faqih’ administration, is governing Iran right now, it seems to me that they are not.”

Çete is of the opinion that becoming a US-Israeli vassal will increase the possibility of Iran’s fragmentation: “In that case, other activities aimed at provoking the Kurds within Iran may come to the agenda. Around Iran, there is the reality of Azerbaijan and Turkey. If Iran shows signs of disintegration, how they take a stance will change. The MHP, which says ‘We stand by Iran’ today, might start saying something else. For this reason, Iran becoming an American-Israeli vassal would have great and negative effects on the region. This also provides the opportunity for the design of the Middle East in line with American interests to reach its final stage, after which the US can leave the Middle East to its own allies in the region, and with an alliance system at the centre of which Israel stands, probably pack up its bags and enter into a more Asia-Pacific, China-oriented direction. It would have met its need to create a wider economic-political geography that will serve its own interests.”