As the boundaries of a regional war are pushed to their limits, the likelihood of large-scale migration from Iran to Turkey increases with every passing hour. Attacks by America and Israel against Iran continue with escalating intensity.

Since the morning of 1 March, along with the world press, we have been trying to learn about the course of events from those arriving from Iran at the Kapıköy Border Crossing in Van. Alongside Kapıköy, we are monitoring the situation at other gates between Turkey and Iran. According to official statements, the number of Iranian citizens entering Turkey between 27 February and 1 March was limited to a few hundred per day. This figure has not changed significantly from 1 March to the present. Based on accounts from those arriving, there appear to be several reasons why this number remains low compared to the severity of the attacks.

The first reason is that decisions concerning the entire country have been relaxed due to extraordinary circumstances on the Iranian side, and the decision-making authority of local governorships has been expanded. This seems to have created a situation where administrators in cities housing border gates to Turkey can make decisions that sometimes change within the same day. Within this framework, while Iranians with dual citizenship can pass through the border gates, uncertainty prevails regarding those with only Iranian citizenship. Iranian officials have not taken an official decision stating "Those with only Iranian citizenship cannot cross the border," yet it is reported that obstacles such as internet outages and electricity problems are being created at the border gates. It is said that occasionally, and for short periods, system malfunctions are reportedly fixed, allowing the passage of those with only Iranian citizenship who happen to be waiting at the gate at that moment.

A few people I spoke with at the gate said that people on the Iranian side of the crossings are being threatened by security forces and their passage is being intentionally interfered with, being told, "We will not allow you to cross the border, go back to your homes."

In Iran, which has an official population of 93 million, there are also approximately 6 million Afghan and Pakistani migrants. Despite the intensity of the ongoing attacks, it can be said that there has been no mass accumulation at the border gates, nor has there been any congestion on the roads leading to the borders. Groups of a few hundred or a few thousand Iranians at the borders are not sufficient to say, "There is migration from Iran to Turkey."

Again, those coming from Iran describe shops and bakeries being largely closed. In a country that has been without internet for days, it is said that with the increasing attacks, people have evacuated areas surrounding points such as military facilities, security unit buildings, complexes where nuclear work is conducted, and government buildings. According to the accounts of people we spoke with at the gate, Iranians see rural areas where there are no military or political complexes as safe, and instead of fleeing to other countries, they prefer to go to their relatives in places they consider secure.

In scenarios where the possibility of mass migration is mentioned, the 2011 Arab Uprisings are mostly taken as an example; however, the fact that the most effective factor triggering migration in Syria was the civil war is often overlooked.

There is no civil war in Iran for now, but this situation could change following America's statement that they could arm Iranian Kurds. In such a case, mass escapes from Iran could also begin.

Those arriving from Iran say that incidents such as looting, robbery, and the appearance of gangs in the streets are not occurring in the cities. This shows that the state mechanism in Iran, at least the law enforcement branch, is still functional. However, the possibility of a civil war could reverse this picture within hours, given that Iran is a country where different ethnic groups live and the population of each ethnic group is considerable.

Returning to the current situation, what surprises the foreign press most at the Kapıköy Border Crossing is that the number of those returning to Iran is much higher than those arriving.

A woman with only Iranian citizenship explained that her mother lives in Germany with her older sister, is on the brink of death, and that she came to Turkey just to be able to speak with them over the internet. The woman said she braved a 7-hour journey just to speak with her mother perhaps for the last time, and would stay for one day before returning to Iran. They do not tell the children there is a war so they won't be afraid; they say there was an old building that collapsed or they are building a new one, and that these noises are construction sounds.

Those returning to Iran generally explained that they were going to see their families and relatives from whom they had not heard, and to check on the situation in the country. Most striking is that the Iranians I spoke with at the Kapıköy border are both very afraid of the current administration and emphasise, "We love our country." Among those I spoke with on 1-2 March, there were some who said that Khamenei had not died, but was hiding as a tactic and could appear at any moment. For this reason, although they use careful language as much as possible in interviews, it would not be wrong to say they vent their fury at both the administration and America and Israel in private conversations. It is also noteworthy that most of the Iranians coming to Turkey are women.

Another factor preventing Iranians from flocking to the borders is that even if Khamenei has died, relatively conciliatory and 'soft-wing' figures like Pezeshkian are still alive and at their posts. The Iranians I spoke with say they want to give a chance to the scenario that a 'soft transition period' could occur in Iran.

The perspectives of the Iranians I spoke with at the Kapıköy Border Crossing, and their stance emphasised by the expression "Iran is our country, why should we flee?", could change with the possibility of a civil war.

Finally, in the mass migration scenarios from Iran to Turkey, the millions of Afghans and Pakistanis who are currently not taken into account must be added to the equation. The Interior Minister said that, as a precaution, tent cities for 90,000 people would be established in the first stage, but the possibility of civil war could trigger migrations from Iran and other countries for which Iran stands almost like a buffer in between. Is Turkey ready for this? Certainly not, and it appears that European countries are already panicking and have taken action to do their best to stop a possible migration movement within Turkey.