Nurhak Çelik

The deaths of Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior military officials in attacks launched by the US-Israel on Saturday have shaken Iran. In a country recently marked by social demonstrations, some segments of the opposition view this tremor as an opportunity to end the regime, while others remain distant from foreign intervention.

The point where disagreements within the opposition are most visible is the debate over the administrative form of post-regime Iran. This creates tension particularly between Persian nationalist and pro-Shah opposition and minority political groups, primarily Kurds. While the Persian nationalist wing wants to maintain the centralised structure, minority groups characterise this approach as a continuation of historical oppression and demand a federal Iran.

Coalition of five Kurdish parties

The Kurdish opposition constitutes the most organised structure in Iran. Five parties within the Kurdish opposition united last week under the name "Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan". The coalition was established following a meeting held by the Cooperation and Dialogue Centre of Iranian Kurdistan Political Parties, with the participation of five out of the seven Kurdish parties that attended the meeting. The steps to be taken by these parties, which announced they had formed a "political-military alliance" on the grounds of preparing for the period following the possible collapse of the regime, will largely be determined by the course of the ongoing attacks against Iran. The coalition consists of the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), the Kurdistan Revolutionary Peoples' Amity Organisation (Xebat), the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), and the Komala of the Revolutionary Toilers of Iranian Kurdistan.

The coalition formed by Kurdish parties

The joint statement announces that Kurdish political parties have united under a coalition against the fragmentation of the opposition. The coalition declared that it "aims for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, the recognition of the Kurdish people's right to self-determination, and the establishment of a national-democratic structure in Iranian Kurdistan" and called for a "democratic, secular, and inclusive transition process in solidarity with other Iranian peoples". It demanded social justice, equality between men and women, free elections, and the guaranteeing of the rights of all national-religious segments.

Although this alliance was established directly against the current regime, it has also come into conflict with pro-Shah circles due to discourses against minority movements. Reza Pahlavi, in a statement on X, said, referring to Kurdish groups, that 'separatists would be suppressed by the army'. Kurdish parties, for their part, fiercely objected to this statement.

The stances of the five parties forming the coalition and the two parties that attended the meeting but did not join the coalition are as follows:

PDKI wants a federal structure

PDKI, which is linked to the Erbil-based Kurdistan Democratic Party (Barzani) and is Iran's most established Kurdish party—having been led in the past by Kurdish leaders such as Qazi Muhammad, Qasimlo, and Sharafkandi—has a current leader, Mustafa Hijri, who emphasised in recent statements that the regime is experiencing not just a governance crisis but a collapse of legitimacy. This party favours a federal Iran and is the Iranian Kurdish group with the most extensive relations with European countries.

The PDKI, which is also the most influential Kurdish party in Iran, had withdrawn from its camps on the Iraq-Iran border to areas within the Iraq Kurdistan Region (IKR) in 2023, along with other Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, as a result of Iranian pressure and the Security Agreement between Baghdad/Erbil and Tehran. Hijri argues that the Kurdish movement is not just a military force but the key to Iran's democratic future.

PAK: The only party advocating independence

The Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), unlike other components of the coalition, is the only political structure openly demanding independence. The Kurdistan National Army, under the command of Hussein Yazdanpanah, is affiliated with this group. Over time, PAK has become the Kurdish actor with the most developed network of relations with the US and Israel in the region.

While PAK conducts an armed struggle against the current regime, it also views the pro-Shah opposition as a centralised "restoration project" that does not recognise the Kurds' right to independence and self-determination.

PJAK: Distant from both the regime and the pro-Shah opposition

PJAK Co-chair Peyman Viyan said after the five-way alliance was established: "Our goal is to determine the fate of the Kurdish people in a democratic country and to ensure the acceptance of the status of the Kurdish people." PJAK links the liberation of Iranian Kurdistan to the democratisation of Iran. The ceasefire they declared in 2011 continues. The PJAK leadership views Reza Pahlavi's discourse on national unity as an attempt to restore the oppressive order of the monarchy era, which usurped the national rights of Kurds and other minorities. Reacting in recent statements to Pahlavi's labelling of federation demands as separatism, PJAK advocates the Democratic Confederalism model for Iran. PJAK is a part of a regional military-political network via the KCK line. It is distant from the idea of foreign intervention. For a long time, it was accused by other Kurdish parties of "having secret relations with Iran".

Revolutionary Toilers' Society and Xebat

The Komala of the Revolutionary Toilers of Iranian Kurdistan, led by Omar Ilkhanizade, comes from the Komala tradition. According to Ilkhanizade, the alliance should be only among Kurdistan parties, not with the general opposition across Iran.

The Kurdistan Revolutionary Peoples' Amity Organisation (Xebat) is the most conservative component representing the traditional and religious base within the five-way coalition. Unlike structures from the secular tradition such as PDKI or Komala, the organisation, whose foundations were laid by the region's religious leader Sheikh Jalal Hosseini, emphasises Muslim Kurdish identity. Rather than a modern party apparatus, it has a traditional structure continuing today under the leadership of Baba Sheikh Hosseini. it has good relations with the People's Mojahedin Organisation.

Komala Party: Close to Reza Pahlavi and the US

Abdullah Mohtedi, the secretary-general of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan—an influential Kurdish party not included in the five-way alliance—stated in a post on his X account that they did not sign the coalition because it "lacked a clear roadmap and administrative mechanism". Behind Mohtedi's cautious stance lies his positive relationship with Reza Pahlavi and the Iranian opposition. Furthermore, PJAK's presence in the alliance is also influential in this stance. For Mohtedi, the priority now is the overthrow of the regime. Mohtedi emphasises diplomatic channels, international lobbies, and media visibility. He has very good relations with the US. Mohtedi values the Iranian supra-identity and dialogue with the general opposition, including Pahlavi.

Communist Party of Iran-Kurdistan Organisation: Absolute rejection of the US and Israel

The Communist Party of Iran-Kurdistan Organisation (Komala), which is positioned further to the left than the Komala led by Abdullah Mohtedi, explained in its latest statement on its website why it did not participate in the five-way alliance. Stating that it comes from a socialist tradition, the movement noted that it sees the Kurdish people's struggle for freedom as an ally of the worker and labourer movement across Iran. The party, which categorically rejects integration into the regional policies of the US and Israel, bases its policy on the struggle against the right-wing and monarchist opposition. To guarantee a democratic transition and prevent military competition between parties, it advocates for arms to be removed from party monopolies and handed over to institutions elected by the people. Due to disagreements on these issues, the party did not join the alliance in question. The group, whose leader is Ibrahim Alizade, is known as Socialist Komala. It advocates class politics instead of nationalist discourse.