Yusuf Ertaş

The expected US-Israeli attack on Iran has taken place. The fact that the strike occurred following the third round of negotiations held in Oman on 26 February—which were reportedly "concluded positively"—means the tradition remains unbroken. The attack in June 2025 had also taken place immediately after statements suggesting that "a positive agreement was very close."

Unlike the previous attack, which aimed at the destruction of nuclear infrastructure, the fact that this operation has focused on overthrowing the regime from the first stage has led to assessments that a longer-term war is being planned.

Iran’s rapid response and the Hormuz move

Iran’s response, however, was not delayed this time. Shortly after the attack, Iran subjected US military bases in the region, primarily those in Israel, to an intensive missile attack. This rapid reflex was evaluated as an indication that Iran’s missile capacity remains strong. Subsequently, Iran announced that it had completely closed the Strait of Hormuz to ship traffic.

The death of Khamenei and regime debates

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei lost his life in the attack. Analysts specialising in Iran are united in the view that this situation will not lead to a rapid disintegration of the Iranian regime. In contrast, media outlets close to Arab governments claim that the process could result either in pragmatists taking over the administration and reaching an agreement on terms desired by the US, or in chaos evolving into a civil war.

Indeed, the London-based Al-Arab newspaper described the death of Ali Khamenei—whom it characterised as "the symbol of ideological hardening and the uncompromising stance against the West, who ruled the country for over thirty years"—as a critical turning point. According to the newspaper, on one hand, a genuine political opening opportunity could arise if pragmatists gain ground and make concessions to lift the country out of isolation. On the other hand, there is a risk of the country drifting into internal chaos, or even a civil war between rival factions, should the regime fail to achieve a new consensus.

Reaction of the Axis of Resistance

The actors forming the Axis of Resistance issued statements of solidarity with Iran against the American-Israeli attack. Lebanese Hezbollah declared its full support for Iran following the start of the strike, emphasising that the consequences would be devastating if a determined resistance against the attack could not be resolutely mounted.

The Houthi Movement (Ansar Allah) in Yemen also called on the people in the capital, Sana’a, and the provinces under its control to hold demonstrations, sending a message of maintaining a unified stance against the attack and solidarity with Iran. Furthermore, it described the operations of the Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guard against American bases as a "legitimate right." In Iraq, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi) and Kata'ib Hezbollah called for preparation and retaliation against the threat faced by Iran.

Call for a unified struggle against the US-Israeli attack

The Workers' Party of Tunisia and the Lebanese Communist Party strongly condemned the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran. The Workers' Party of Tunisia warned the peoples of the region and the world against American-Zionist propaganda, calling for national and progressive forces to act together to stop the aggression against Iran. The Lebanese Communist Party described the attack as a continuation of the policies of genocide and regional domination against the Palestinian and Lebanese people, emphasizing that the right of peoples to self-determination must be protected.

The possibility of a prolonged and multi-front war

The joint US-Israeli operation, which began on the morning of 28 February 2026, indicates that the Middle East is drifting towards a long-term and multi-front war of attrition rather than a short-lived military tension. According to analyses in the Arab press, the attack is based on a more comprehensive strategy targeting not only Iran's nuclear programme, but also its missile infrastructure, military command centres, proxy networks, and the direct regime structure. While the assassination of the Iranian leadership and simultaneous large-scale attacks open the door to a period of conflict with uncertain fronts and unpredictable duration, Tehran’s missile moves towards the Gulf and the messages sent regarding energy security carry the crisis to a global economic dimension.

The common assessment of analysts is that this is not a one-off "punishment" operation; rather, the US and Israel are planning sustainable military pressure that could last weeks or even months, while Iran is attempting to establish a balance by raising the costs through its missile, drone, and naval capabilities.

---

No to the attack on Iran and its people

Workers' Party of Tunisia:

The expected American-Zionist attack on Iran has begun. The two fascists at the forefront of this attack, Trump and Netanyahu, have not hidden that their aim is to overthrow the Iranian regime. No one should doubt that the motivation for this new war is not solidarity with the Iranian people or the will to liberate them from tyranny. For fascists who commit massacres and genocidal wars in Palestine and other parts of the world, and who kidnap heads of state from their beds, offer nothing to peoples but death, destruction, and ruin.

The real aim of this attack, which is a continuation of the assaults on Gaza, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran itself, is once again to seize the riches and resources of the Iranian people and to establish a submissive and obedient administration in place of the current regime. Thus, it is aimed for American imperialism to re-establish dominance in the region at the expense of its Chinese and Russian rivals; to prepare the ground for strategic encounters in the China Sea and other parts of the world; and at the same time, for the Zionist entity to extend its arms in the region and dominate the fate of the area in an environment consisting of fragmented structures divided on religious, sectarian, and ethnic grounds, lacking will and in conflict with each other, serving the goals of a "Greater Israel."

The peoples of the region and the world cannot remain spectators in the face of this aggression; for this situation will further embolden the aggressors and expose regional and global peace to great dangers. The current war is not a war against Iran alone, like the genocidal war in Gaza and the other wars waged against Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen; it is a war waged against all the peoples of the region and the world. Peoples always pay the price of wars with their own lives. These wars are aggressive wars started by forces representing great powers and monopoly corporations for the purpose of establishing dominance over raw materials, markets, and strategic regions. Arab peoples and the peoples of the region, especially the Palestinian people, have for decades been paying the price of American-Zionist barbarity, with the complicity of collaborative and shameful regimes, at the cost of blatant violations of international law and norms.

Today, the solution lies in standing against this new attack and not falling into the trap set by American-Zionist propaganda and its tools in the region. This propaganda, on one hand, fuels sectarian tendencies, while on the other, it claims to support the Iranian people's struggle for freedom and democracy. The Iranian people alone bear the responsibility for changing the system that governs them; no other party, especially not the fascist American crime machine that practices racism and massacres not only against other peoples but also against its own, and its Zionist tool skilled in genocidal wars, can take their place. Iran, under attack, has the right to defend its territory and to resist the attacks targeting it.

While the Workers' Party of Tunisia condemns this new barbaric attack on Iran and expresses its full solidarity with the Iranian people—who possess a deep-rooted civilisation and should live freely, in security and peace, sovereign over their own riches and having the right to choose the form of government they desire—it calls upon all national and progressive, anti-imperialist and anti-Zionist forces in the region and the world to exert pressure to stop this dangerous attack, the outcome of which cannot yet be predicted.

Furthermore, it calls especially upon the peoples of the Gulf region to raise the fire of anger against the collaborative and shameful regimes that have turned their lands into American military bases serving as launch points for all attacks against the peoples of the region.

It also calls upon the Tunisian people and their progressive forces to express their rejection of the attack on Iran and, together with the peoples of the region, to demand the closure of all embassies of the Zionist entity and the cessation of all forms of normalisation with it. Hands off Iran! No to the attack on Iran and its people! No to American bases on Arab lands and in the entire region!

---

A possible Iranian war of attrition that could exceed a year

Ihab Muqbil Sawt al-Iraq / Iraq

Despite the weight of the Khamenei assassination, indicators suggest that the region has entered a phase of long-term indirect conflict rather than an immediate and total war. This is a stage where ceilings are gradually raised, red lines are tested, and the conflict is managed across various arenas and through various means without an official declaration of war. This war of attrition could continue for 6 months to over a year, in line with Iran's experience in managing unconventional conflicts.

With the confirmation of the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Middle East will witness not a war that concludes with lightning speed, but one of the longest wars of attrition in modern history. A war without clear headlines, without fixed fronts, and with no near end in sight.

---

The war to overthrow the Iranian regime

Hamad Faraneh ad-Dustour / Jordan

On Saturday, 28 February 2026, the joint Israeli attack with American forces against Iran began. The aim is to destroy Iran's capacities and resources, and to rapidly prepare the environment and conditions for the overthrow of the political regime. The American-Israeli goal is to bring down and change the policies, ambitions, and orientations of the Iranian regime; it is not merely a matter of limiting nuclear enrichment activities or downsizing its ballistic missiles.

The escalation targeting the Iranian regime began by weakening its tools and allies in the Eastern Arab geography.

The military, security, and political leadership cadres of Hezbollah were killed and subjected to assassinations; the movement's effectiveness was paralysed. Hamas's capacity was reduced, and the Gaza Strip was re-occupied. On 8 December 2024, the regime in Damascus was overthrown; the land, air, and sea forces of the Syrian army were completely destroyed, rendered dysfunctional, and more Syrian territory was occupied following the official acceptance of the annexation of the Golan and its being considered Israeli territory.

This process continued with steps such as the re-occupation of Palestinian cities in the West Bank, the narrowing of the position, authority, and borders of the Palestinian administration; its not being invited to and not participating in the peace council convened in Washington at the call of President Trump; the continuation of the severance of the link between Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza; and the weakening of Palestinian internal unity and the fragmentation of its mobility. This situation led to the deepening of the division between Fatah and Hamas and the weakening of both sides. As a reflection of this, direct negotiations were held with Hamas on 10 October 2025 to accept and sign the ceasefire agreement.

The attack, conflict, and war launched by Israel together with the Americans against Iran on 28 February did not find acceptance or satisfaction in Arab, Islamic, and European circles. This stance stems not from a love or support for Iran's policies, but from the concern that Arab capitals—as in the examples of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman—could also be subjected to attacks and bombardment. Due to reciprocal missile launches, the airspace will be filled with anxiety; this war will be of no benefit to the capitals in question. The war will result in losses for everyone, but if the overthrow of the Iranian regime is achieved in the end, the winner will be Israel, which is the basic and central goal of the war.

The presence of any effective and strong party that could oppose Israel's occupation of Palestine and Arab lands is not desired. The aim is for Israel to establish hegemony over the entirety of the Eastern Arab geography; to become the strongest, most influential, and most advanced actor, and to be the party that benefits most from the economic resources, raw materials of the Arabs, and their markets open to Israeli goods.

---

The American and Israeli attack on Iran… There is no turning back now

Michael Horowitz Al-Majalla / Saudi Arabia

On the morning of 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military attack against Iran. The code name for the operation on the American side was "Operation Epic Fury," and on the Israeli side, it was "Operation Roaring Lion." The attack covered targets in various regions of Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah.

Israeli Defence Minister Yisrael Katz described the operation as a "pre-emptive strike" aimed at "eliminating threats to the State of Israel." President Donald Trump, in a video message published on the Truth Social platform, defined the operation as a "Big and ongoing operation" aiming to destroy Iran’s missile capacity and prevent the regime from acquiring nuclear weapons.

This is not a limited move. Both governments have indicated that the operation could continue for days, or perhaps even longer.

The operation is qualitatively different from last year’s "Operation Midnight Hammer." The attacks in June 2025 targeted nuclear facilities; today's operation, however, targets missile launch platforms, ballistic missile infrastructure, military command centres, and most importantly, the political heart of the state.

Iran’s response

Iran's reaction also shows that the conflict is far from limited. Only hours after the joint American-Israeli attack, Iran launched a series of missile strikes against Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait. In Bahrain, it is stated that the target was likely a large American naval base.

Iran is using one of its strongest cards. By targeting the Gulf, it is expanding the scope of the conflict and threatening an energy shock that could create tremors in the global economy. Any attempt at a more permanent closure of the Gulf would have a significant impact on the global economy, including gas prices in the US.

In Yemen, the Houthi Movement (Ansar Allah) has already announced that it will resume attacks in the Red Sea. This is considered another sign that Iran and its proxies are trying to create a wider economic shock to increase pressure on Israel and the United States to suspend their operations.

Targets

Iran’s goal is relatively clear: to ensure that the American-Israeli attack lasts as short a time as possible and to impose a heavy price through American casualties and severe economic costs. President Donald Trump, on the other hand, has not clarified how long the operation will last or what final shape he wishes to achieve. American officials informed Reuters as of 14 February that the military was preparing for "Sustainable operations that could last weeks," targeting not only nuclear or missile facilities but the state structure and security infrastructure on a broader scale. This language points to a long-term and continuous military campaign rather than a one-off punitive strike; this carries the risk of the conflict evolving into a prolonged war, as senior American military officials have warned in private conversations.

The decisive question is: Will Iran be able to sustain ongoing missile attacks against Israel, the Gulf, and American interests in the region? Alongside attacks targeting the leadership and command-and-control structure, the US and Israel are expected to aim to silence Iran as quickly as possible by focusing on Iran’s missile and drone arsenal and its naval capabilities. This situation will determine the success or failure of the American-Israeli operations.

If Iran maintains the capacity to respond in a way that generates heavy costs, the US and Israel may be forced to narrow their objectives. Conversely, if Iran’s retaliation capacity is eliminated, the US and Israel will have a wider room for manoeuvre in their efforts to more comprehensively destroy the regime, even if this takes weeks.