US imperialism and Israeli Zionism have started 2026 rapidly. The thuggish abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife in a raid on January 3rd was an expression of the "normalization" of similar practices. Indeed, it was so. The fact that Israel and the USA began bombing Iran as of Saturday morning, followed by the announcement in the evening that Spiritual Leader Khamenei and a group of high-ranking officials were killed, is a demonstration of this.

In most of the statements made by European leaders since Saturday, implicit support was given to the USA and Israel, while Iran’s missile attacks on US bases in Arab countries were condemned.

Europe Condemned Iran, not the USA and Israel

The reactions in Europe on the first day carry the characteristic of determining the policy for the upcoming period. In a joint statement made by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, their failure to bring even the slightest criticism of the USA and Israel’s bombing of Iran simultaneously meant that they supported the attack, which was named "Lion’s Roar." The joint statement also issued a warning to Iran to "refrain from destabilizing activities in the region and stop the violence against its own people."

The statement by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas was in the same direction. EU foreign ministers, who will come together in an online program on Sunday, are expected to make a situational assessment and determine the stance to be followed in the coming period.

Behind this approach, which condemns Iran and acquits the USA and Israel, is the message that European countries could also become part of the process depending on developments. This is because Israel informed countries, including Germany, in detail before the operation. Chancellor Merz also confirmed this. The fact that many European countries warned their citizens in the region days in advance also shows that they were aware of the developments.

Calculations after Khamenei’s death

The announcement that Iranian Spiritual Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and top security officials were killed in the operation organized on Saturday morning seems to have pleased both European countries and Iranian dissidents in Europe. Celebrations were held in some cities, particularly Munich and Berlin.

It is understood that if the Iranian regime evolves into processes of weakening, disintegration, or cooperation, European countries will make more effective moves to intervene in the process. Indeed, for European countries that maintain economic relations with Iran at a certain level, Iran also offers new opportunities in terms of new markets and energy resources. For this reason, it can be said that they will not look favorably upon the USA and Israel designing the region alone. They will want to be a more active part of the process in exchange for certain responsibilities. "Israel’s security" and the "freedom of the Iranian people" will be the primary propaganda materials.

The fact that a large number of Iranian dissidents live in European countries also prepares the ground for this. As will be remembered, it was announced that 250,000 people attended the rally organized by Iranian dissidents in Munich on February 14th, where the son of the deposed Shah, Reza Pahlavi, participated as a speaker. The organization of this large demonstration in coordination with Pahlavi’s presentation to international powers and arms monopolies at the Munich Security Conference can be read as pressing the button for "regime change." The social movement rising within Iran in recent months has also strengthened the hands of those planning "regime change."

The weakened and decayed Iranian regime and aftermath

The process resulting in Khamenei’s death is significant in many respects for the world, the region, and Iran. These can be listed as follows:

1. It was clear that for the USA-Israel, which dealt heavy military blows to Iran in the 12-day war that took place in June 2025, there would be a continuation. Many analysts had rightly identified that the war had not ended, but was only paused. Despite this, it is understood that Iran did not or could not make serious preparations. This means that its military capacity is not at a level to deter Israel and the USA, and the intelligence agencies of these two countries possess data regarding this.

2. The process that began with the killing of Hamas Leader Haniyeh in Tehran and continued with the killing of chiefs of general staff in the 12-day war shows that the USA-Israel axis possesses a great deal of intelligence information from within Iran. It is unclear whether this information is possessed through intelligence agents infiltrated into the regime or by using technical means. However, it was seen once again with the pinpoint killing of Khamenei that they have more significant information than estimated. Therefore, it can be said that the Iranian regime is in one of the weakest periods of its history.

3. Weakness is present not only internally but also externally. Following the process that started with Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7th, significant blows were dealt to Iran's proxy forces, and they were weakened. The regime change in Syria and the elimination of pro-Iranian forces can also be seen as part of this process.

4. The intervention of the USA-Israel axis in Iran is a message given to Russia and primarily China beyond Iran on a large scale. Should Iran's oil and natural gas resources fall under US control after Venezuela, China could face significant problems regarding energy supply. Chief among these is, of course, a contraction in production. Indeed, one of the primary goals of the USA is to limit China's cheap production and remove it from the markets it controls.

5. The USA-Israel axis is certain that Russia and China, which have close relations with Iran, will not participate in the war alongside Iran militarily under current conditions. The statement made by China after the attack did not go beyond "deep concern" and "respect for sovereign rights." Russia described the USA and Israel's airstrikes on Iran as a "dangerous adventure that has brought the region to the brink of a humanitarian, economic, and radiological catastrophe." It is understood that the political support given to Iran will not have a military dimension. The bypassing of the UN also seems to have significantly limited what Russia and China can do diplomatically.

6. Independent of what moves the regime in Iran takes from now on, the killing of Khamenei is in itself a harbinger of new developments in terms of redesigning the region. It is already visible that this will have inevitable effects on the peoples and countries of the region. European countries, on the other hand, will prefer to use the process to become an effective power in the region. In this regard, German Chancellor Merz had counted Turkey among the countries of importance at the Munich Security Conference. Developments in Iran could reactivate relations between Turkey and Europe due to mutual dependence.