Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) announced the inflation figures for April. The data showed that monthly inflation in April was 3%, the second highest monthly inflation rate of the year. Official inflation in Turkey was 5.03% in January, 2.27% in February and 2.46% in March. The upward pressure on the exchange rate, which intensified in March due to judicial operations against the opposition, pushed monthly inflation up again.

Despite austerity measures, inflation remains out of control. Under the two-year economic management of Mehmet Şimşek, annual inflation has stagnated at 38%, the Turkish lira has lost 83% of its value and real wages continue to fall. While wage increases consistently lag behind inflation, the purchasing power of the minimum wage has eroded by TL 2,600 in just four months, deepening income inequality.

Annual inflation at 37.86%

Annual inflation reached 37.86%, while the official inflation rate for the first four months of the year climbed to 13.36%. This means that more than half of the Central Bank's year-end inflation target has been exceeded in just four months.

Mehmet Şimşek, who will complete two years in office in June, and his austerity programme have failed to reduce inflation over the past two years. When he took office, annual inflation was 38.2%; today it stands at 37.86%. Similarly, despite depleted reserves and implicit exchange rate guarantees, the USD/TRY rate has risen by 83%, from 21 to 38.43 over the same period.

During this period, however, the policy rate increased from 8.5% to 46%. While inflation has not improved significantly, the interest burden on citizens has increased.

Monthly food inflation at 2% in April

The three main expenditure groups with the highest weights showed the following monthly changes:

- Food and non-alcoholic beverages +2.01%

- Transport: +3.80%

- Housing: +4.66%

Annual changes in these groups were:

- Food and non-alcoholic beverages: +36.09%

- Transport: +22.76%

- Housing: +74.07%

Their contributions to the annual inflation rate were:

- Food and non-alcoholic beverages 9.21%

- Transport: 3.84%

- Housing: 9.98%

Inflation expectations

Prior to TÜİK's announcement, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) released its survey of market participants for April 2025, which reflects market expectations. The year-end inflation expectation increased from 28.04% to 29.98% in the survey, which included input from 71 participants representing the real and financial sectors.

ENAG: Annual inflation at 73.88

The Inflation Research Group (ENAG) also released inflation data for April. According to ENAG, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.46% on a monthly basis and by 73.88% on an annual basis.

The highest inflation among sub-groups was in communications at 9.67%, followed by miscellaneous goods and services at 9.51% and restaurants and hotels at 7.68%.

DİSK-AR Report: Inflation still very high

The Research Centre of the Confederation of Progressive Trade Unions of Turkey (DİSK-AR) has published its inflation bulletin for May 2025. DİSK-AR emphasised that TÜİK's data does not reflect the real situation on the ground and stated that workers and low-income earners bear the heaviest burden of high inflation.

According to DİSK-AR, while the overall CPI has increased by about 26.3 times since 2003, food prices have increased by 39.3 times in the same period. As food expenditure accounts for the largest share of low-income households' budgets, this increase directly worsens living conditions. While higher income groups spend a smaller proportion on food, the poor struggle to meet even basic needs.

TÜİK's 2023 data shows that the bottom 20% income group earns only 6.3% of total income. This group spends 36.6% of its budget on food, while the top 20% spends only 14.5%. The DİSK-AR report noted that "low-income citizens cannot allocate budgets for non-food necessities due to high food expenditures".

"Still hiding data despite court ruling"

Another notable point in the report is TÜİK's continued refusal to disclose itemised price lists. DİSK-AR recalled that the Ankara 6th Administrative Court had ruled in a lawsuit that TÜİK had to release this data to the public, but the institution had not complied. DİSK-AR warned that this disregard for court rulings by public institutions is worrying.

March inflation was announced at 2.46

TÜİK had reported a 2.46% increase in the monthly CPI in March. Compared to March last year, the CPI increased by 38.10%. (EVRENSEL DAILY)