The latest developments show that the struggle for sharing between the imperialists and regional reactionaries, centred in Syria and Libya in the Middle East, North Africa and Eastern Mediterranean, is intended to move to the Caucasian front.
Yusuf Karadaş
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia for over 30 years (since 1988) brought the two countries to the brink of a new war. After the clashes between the armies of the two countries in Tovuz in another region on July 12-13, violent clashes have been taking place in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, accompanied by mutual accusations. According to the first statements, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared "partial mobilization" and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan declared "martial law and general mobilization" due to the conflicts in which more than 40 people lost their lives.
The question that comes to mind here is the following: Why is it that this war between the 2 countries, which has been ongoing for 30 years and of which the "solution" for it is headed up by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) which is lead by imperialist countries such as USA, France and Russia, to which the Minsk Group is a party has reached the brink of a new war? The answer to this question cannot be explained solely by the attitude of the reactionary bourgeois administrations in Armenia and Azerbaijan. Because the fact that we have come to the brink of war today cannot be considered independent of the developments and forces that encourage and further incentivise the governments of the two countries. Therefore, the latest developments show that the struggle for sharing between the imperialists and regional reactionaries, centred in Syria and Libya in the Middle East, North Africa and Eastern Mediterranean, is intended to move to the Caucasian front.
To explain a little more; The struggle for the re-division of the region allows the actors / forces who were unable to take a new step in the conditions of yesterday to find a space for themselves and make new moves to strengthen their positions on this basis.
In line with the leading role which imperialist USA and Russia take with regards to the fight for power in the region, the Erdogan regime in Turkey is also the main actor and in support of its expansionist aims intervenes in regional affairs.
After its attempts to intervene and or have a say in Syria, Libya and East Mediterranean the government in Turkey is now taking a determining role in the tensions sparked within Caucasia.
After the tension in Tovuz in July, the escalation of the tension was encouraged by President Erdogan and other statements from the ruling front under the name of supporting Azerbaijan, and then a joint exercise with Azerbaijan was held. The attitude of the government to be a party to the war, which was expressed in President Erdogan's statement "Karabakh is our national issue as much as Azerbaijan" after the recent conflicts, "Will we declare war on Armenia as well?" Written in this column after the conflicts in Tovuz? He once again reveals the truth pointed out in his article in a striking way: “The way of his involvement in the tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia, in line with the expansionist aspirations of the monopoly bourgeoisie, of which the one-man power is representative, does not hesitate to provoke wars and conflicts wherever he can putting it.”
The fact that the conflicts related to the sharing struggle have moved to Russia's backyard, and moreover, to the borders of the former Soviet Union, which Putin administration sees as the heir, shows that the escalation of the tension here is not independent from the calculations of squeezing Russia. However, it should be added that this move to limit Russia's increasing power and influence in the region is not unlikely to backfire, just like Syria.
Russia, which has close military and economic ties with Armenia, is creating the necessary conditions from the Nagorno-Karabakh tensions to put pressure on Azerbaijan which it is currently experiencing issues with regards to its policies on the energy sector. (Economically, Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia and in terms of its military aspect, it is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation which was formed under the leadership of Russia against NATO)
Azerbaijan, on the other hand, maintains close relations and cooperation with the United States and western imperialists, with which it signed an agreement on the operation of energy resources in 1994. On the other hand, relations with NATO member Turkey, Azerbaijan to western imperialists makes a trump card that can be used against Russia.
Even if the government in Turkey changes, Turkey has always had close ties with Azerbaijan, demonstrated with the slogan “one nation, two states” since the era of Ebulfeyz Elçibey (1992-93). There is an economic foundation to this policy where Azerbaijan's petrol pipe line passes through Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan.
In summary, the government in Turkey is using the tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia as ammunition to corner Russia which it currently has disputes over handing Idlib and Tel Rifaat in Syria, Kufra and Sirte in Libya to the National Consensus Government which it supports. However, as mentioned at the start of this article it is not unlikely that this move will have a backlash and, after East Mediterranean, Russia will make it impossible for the government of Erdogan to make any advances in Syria and Libya.
Bülent Falakaoğlu
Hakkı Özdal
