Is Erdoğan's message for Syria a harbinger of a crisis with Russia?

President Tayyip Erdoğan gave remarkable messages about Syria at the opening ceremony of Reyhanlı Dam, which he attended with a live connection on October 3. Erdoğan, first of all, signalled a new operation with the words "The terror zones that still exist in Syria will either be cleaned as promised to us, or we will go and do it ourselves". "We will never accept any step that will cause a new humanitarian tragedy in Idlib" he added, and showed the determination of the Turkish army to continue its position in Idlib.

Well, to whom were these messages given?

Considering that the negotiations between the Turkish and Russian delegations on Idlib ended in disagreement, and moreover, the Turkish side wanted the control of Tel Rıfat and Manbij to be left to the Free Syrian Army groups that it supported, this was clearly a direct message to Russia.

The joint Turkish-Russian military patrol on the M4 Highway in Idlib, which came out as a result of both sides agreeing in Moscow on March 5th, was suspended in August. “Terrorists increased their attacks on soldiers and surrounding settlements. Therefore, the joint patrol has been suspended,” Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said.

It is stated that the attacks on the joint patrol in Idlib were carried out by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as well as the Huras al-Din organisation, which declared direct allegiance to al-Qaeda and had tense relations with HTS. Huras al-Din made a name for himself as the organization where ISIS leader Baghdadi, who was killed by the USA, took refuge in October 2019. In addition to HTS, Russia has recently carried out point air operations against Huras al-Din, which is located in the rural area in the southwest of Idlib.

Erdoğan's words about Idlib express a reaction against these operations.

It is necessary to read Erdoğan's message along with what the Russian delegation said during the meetings held in September.

Reminding Turkey of its commitments in Idlib, they stated that if HTS and Huras al-Din's terrorist activities are not stopped, a new operation by the Syrian army might come on the agenda in Idlib. On the other hand, their request for the Turkish army to evacuate some observation points within the regions controlled by the Syrian army in Idlib was rejected by the Turkish side this time.

All this reveals that although the Sochi and Moscow agreements on Idlib remain officially valid, they are blocked in the field. Therefore, a new tension and crisis seems inevitable in Idlib.

So, what are the places President Erdoğan describes as "terror zones" and says "If not cleared, we will go and do so ourselves"?

Again, considering the negotiations between the two delegations in September, Erdoğan is talking about Tel Rifat and Manbij.

According to the agreement signed between Erdoğan and Putin in Sochi after the Turkish army's 'Peace Spring' operation towards the east of the Euphrates in October 2019, the Syrian Democratic

Forces (SDF) [led by Kurdish groups] would withdraw from the border in Tel Rifat and Manbij, which is west of the Euphrates and Russian soldiers would be deployed in the area.

In the last negotiations, the Turkish side demanded that Tel Rifat and Manbij be left to the groups they support (Free Syrian Army) on the grounds that "terrorist elements" (SDF) had not withdrawn, but this demand was denied.

The Putin administration, which recently invited the Kurdish delegation headed by the Syrian Democratic Council (SDM) Co-Chair Ilham Ehmed to Moscow and signed an agreement with the Syrian politician Kadri Cemil, who is known for his closeness to Russia, it seems under current conditions to be a remote possibility to make such a move against the Kurds.

Looking at these developments on the ground, we can say that the Erdoğan administration has drifted towards a point where it will be at odds with Russia, which it has been cooperating with in Syria since 2016.

It is important to add that the conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia, economically and militarily backed by Russia, and Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, plays a role in accelerating the process of confrontation between the two countries.

When these developments are read together with the EU's threat of sanctions due to the tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and the USA's moves to develop cooperation between Arab regimes and Israel in the Middle East, one can say that Erdoğan government's manoeuvring space will be shrinking.

Getting rid of this wrong policy that has left the country face to face with new threats and tensions cannot be considered independent from the struggle against the one-man regime that sees this policy as its reason for existence.