Deniz UZTOPAL
Paris
The Yellow Vests movement, which has been occupying the streets in France since 17 November and has secured the support of wide sections of society, continues to upset President Emmanuel Macron and his government’s calculations. Initially reacting harshly towards the movement, the government began to soften over time. Government officials, having said in the first days that the policies they were implementing were correct and there would definitely be no going back, were forced to make fresh concessions when people’s anger remained unabated despite the scrapping of the fuel taxes that were seen as being the last straw.
Macron’s speech was eagerly awaited throughout the country on Monday evening. The Macronites, for some time forced to declare the Yellow Vests’ anger “legitimate” and “understandable,” asserted that this speech would answer all questions. In the end, nearly 22 million watched the ensuing “Address to the Nation” speech. Meaning more than the 19 million who watched France’s final game in the World Cup! And, yes, Macron made certain announcements, but, from a deeper perspective, also laid the ground for the next social attacks by effectively maintaining the same political orientation.
Macron’s most important announcement concerned a one hundred euro increase as of January in the wages of workers employed on the minimum wage (1185 euro net). The message was initially taken to mean that the minimum wage had been raised by a hundred euro, but on digging deeper it will be seen that the minimum wage has not been increased. What Macron said was, “The earnings of a worker on the minimum wage will be increased by one hundred euro a month as of 2019 without imposing even a one euro burden on employers.”
Not only will the wage be put up, but the employer will not be burdened by even a single cent. How can this be? This is the crux of the matter. The minimum wage was, in any case, to be increased by 1.8 per cent as of January in line with inflation, so this makes twenty euro. Where is the remaining eighty euro to be found? Macron deliberately left this matter vague, because, in fact, the Family Benefits Agency provides minimum wage earners with a statutory annual “employment bonus” and the “employment bonus” payable until 2020 was, in any case, going to be in the region of eighty euro, so a previously declared allowance that was to be paid gradually every year will have been granted all at once.
There will be an increase in the amount of money minimum wage earners get in 2019 but the snag is that this will still come out of the people’s taxes. This will not cost the bosses even one cent.
It is common knowledge here and now that there will be talk tomorrow of an increased state budget and a need for cuts to be made because he has opted today for a widening of the state budget deficit rather than the rich putting their hands in their pockets so that he can assuage today’s anger. This boils down to the proclamation today of new attacks slated for tomorrow.
On the other hand, denying an increase in the minimum wage is to deny a wage increase to all workers in general.
A further “solution” that Macron has come up with for the working class’s constrained purchasing power is to call for philanthropy from the rich. The President called on companies to give workers year-end bonuses if at all possible. Macron, having made a gesture without raising the minimum wage, is appealing to the “sentiments” of the rich and he wants them to engage in philanthropy. But, the “president of the rich” has not stopped at this and has also proclaimed that these potential bonuses will be tax-free. So, the move to scrap taxes on year-end bonus payments that are in any case part of collective agreements made in many workplaces is basically a concession made to the bosses. That is, they will no longer pay tax on bonuses that they have given until today anyway! The remainder, in turn, will wriggle out by declaring them impossible!
On the other hand, Macron has announced that he will reenact former President Sarkozy’s symbolic law: no tax will be imposed on overtime pay.
Macron went further than Sarkozy and announced that deductions earmarked for the retirement and social insurance funds would not be imposed on overtime pay, either. So, these hours will not count towards retirement. If the boss imposes overtime, the worker’s wage will, of course, go up a bit, but this process will also widen the deficit of the social insurance and retirement funds. Precisely two issues planned to come under the spotlight in 2019. The ground is once more being laid today for the attacks that will come tomorrow. However, the same old rhetoric is trotted out: “If we do not extend the retirement age the retirement fund will go bust.” But they appear to be the ones who are actually bankrupting the fund. As to the tax exemptions worth more than forty billion euro annually given to the biggest monopolies, there was not a word. And, when it came to reintroducing the wealth tax, a major demand at the social level, this was rejected unceremoniously.
The scrapping of general social contribution tax for workers earning less than two thousand euro per month is undoubtedly positive. But Macron’s decisions are not a “social initiative.” They are decisions that lay the ground for new social attacks and merely aim at buying time.
Endeavouring to buy time, Macron forgot entirely about the young, civil servants and those in temporary and transient work. He even started his speech praising the police, who had attacked workers, wage earners and young people with exceptional violence. Every day, thousands of young people are blockading hundreds of high schools, struggling and being forced to clash with the police. Millions of working people are unemployed in France and those able to find jobs have to work under the worst of conditions and for very low pay. These things were forgotten in their entirety and not a single comment was made about them. He is perhaps unaware that part-time workers, eighty per cent of them women, cannot make ends meet. But the decisions announced most certainly did not satisfy working people. According to a poll held after the speech, 59 per cent of French people were not convinced by Macron’s speech.
It is undoubtedly hard to provide a definitive answer to this question, but we can note that one detachment within the Yellow Vests is sticking to its guns, while another detachment has by now grown tired.
But young people throwing themselves into the struggle and a gradual escalation of the protests may change the complexion of the matter. Neither truncheons nor gas appears capable of assuaging young people’s anger. Under a scenario in which teachers also join the struggle, the struggle could assume a different dimension.
The country’s largest trade unions have called for a “day of struggle” on Friday 14 December.
As to Saturday 15 December, the coming days will reveal whether there is to be a new protest in Paris. But it can be said right now that a cold winter is in store for Macron.
Translated by Tim Drayton
Bülent Falakaoğlu
Hakkı Özdal
