It looks like the third quarter's growth figure of 11.1 percent seems to be convincing for the spokesmen of the ruling party of Turkey. That’s good! The record-breaking growth in the economy is also breaking records within the macro data too.
It is expected to see the same performance of Turkish Lira losing the biggest rate against US Dollar.
TL has lost the most value of the currency against US Dollar in the year 2017, is expected to follow the same performance in the year coming. Investment and Research institutions have predicted the Dollar exchange rate forecast to be between 4.20TL to 4.38TL for the end of 2018.
In 2018 global forecast made by J. P. Morgan; Turkey's fiscal balance, which is -1.9 percent of GDP in 2017, is expected to be -2.1 percent in 2018 and -3.2 percent in 2019.
The ratio of foreign debt to GDP is expected to exceed 50 percent by 2018. On the other hand, our country who does not owe to the IMF does not go by without breaking the record of having foreign debt.
With a growth rate of 11 percent in the third quarter, the growth rate to be carried over 5 percent annually is expected to drop to 2.5 percent for 2018.
The economy, which has seen 13 percent in inflation, is expected to continue its upward trend in 2018, especially due to resistance and cost pressures in core inflation.
The economy, which has tested historical record levels in unemployment, has no hope in the coming year.
The most pessimistic expectation for 2019 and not just 2018, is the anticipated increase in the budget deficit.
As it has already been pointed out, the increase in the budget pushes the Treasury to borrow, which increases borrowing costs (interest rate) on the market and puts pressure on costs. The uncertainties in the global economy and the possibility of a possible early election in the near future make it unlikely that the public spending on the budget deficit will decline.
We can say that the conflicting environment of the year 2018 in the worldwide somewhat soft, but it is a year filled with elections, so there is always an uncertainty that new risk areas may arise.
It is a year of elections for India, Indonesia, Russia, Macedonia, Italy, Colombia, Philippines, Mexico, Malesia, Brazil, Venezuela and Thailand. The countries having elections (excluding Italy and Russia) when considered in the same league with Turkey, even if we (Turkey) don’t have movement, it will be obvious that the political and economic actions affect us greatly.
Sinan Alçın
Bülent Falakaoğlu
Hakkı Özdal
