Yes, this is a love story but an excessively dramatic one

Following the discourse of “survival,” love was the metaphor the AKP (ruling party led by President Tayyip Erdoğan) resorted to the most in these elections. The AKP, which along with its partner the MHP (nationalist party) directed harsh hate speech at the opposition throughout the elections, most probably thought it was following a successful advertising campaign with this metaphor. The clip accompanied by the “Ours is a Love Story” song that President Erdoğan used at rallies was also posted on the AKP’s social media account. This was then subsequently reported in the regime media: “Ours is a Love Story courted great interest on social media.”

We can comfortably say as we interpret the 31 March local elections in conjunction with the results to have emerged until now: “Yes, this is a love story, but an excessively dramatic one!”

For two reasons. Initially, from the AKP’s perspective, this election was an election in which it lost many towns and underwent serious electoral attrition in many towns. So, it was excessively dramatic from the AKP’s standpoint. But, from the opposition’s perspective, even if it brings a degree of comfort, it comes with dramatic content in showing that its task is not particularly easy.

Let me start with the results from the AKP’s perspective. As this article was penned, the AKP has lost the capital of Ankara, one of the metropolitan cities the AKP won in the 27 March 1994 elections in which Erdoğan was elected Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor and that the AKP has retained ever since. The AKP was incapable with the MHP’s support of holding Ankara, which the Welfare Party captured single handed 25 years ago.

In Istanbul, on the other hand, as this article was penned Yıldırım and İmamoğlu were slugging it out in the vicinity of 48%. If the result of the contest is proclaimed in the AKP’s favour, this will court great controversy due both to the focus that will be placed on various stains present from the outset and the Supreme Election Council having been turned into a structure with pro-regime inclinations whose performance is open to debate.

One of the most important features of these elections was the reflection the effects the economic crisis found in the results, especially in the industrial towns with a high concentration of workers. The AKP and MHP’s total vote in the 2014 local elections in Bursa, the heart of the metal sector, was 65%. In this election, the Bursa candidate supported by the AKP and MHP only mustered 50%. Similarly, in another important worker city of Kocaeli, the People’s Alliance saw its vote fall by 10% as against the previous local elections. In another worker city of Kayseri, the combined AKP and MHP vote in 2014 was 86% and it fell to 63% in this election.

Küçükçekmece, one of Istanbul’s major worker centres, passed from the AKP to the CHP (social democratic party). The ruling party lost a significant share of the vote here. In Esenyurt, which passed from the AKP to the CHP in this election, poverty and the HDP’s (pro-Kurdish party) support warrant consideration in interpreting the result.

Let us recap the towns that both the party that President Erdoğan alludes to without mentioning its name and the People’s Alliance have lost

Adana and Mersin have passed from the MHP to the CHP. Antalya, Artvin, Ardahan, Ankara, Bilecik, Bolu and Kırşehir have passed from the AKP to the CHP.

In Osmaniye, known to be an MHP stronghold, the People’s Alliance’s vote fell from 82% to 53% as against the 2014 elections.

With many provinces where the AKP had appointed trustees retaken by the HDP, the HDP increased its vote in Diyarbakır and Batman. Conversely, Şırnak, Ağrı and Bitlis were provinces that passed from the HDP to the AKP. Kars and Iğdır became the HDP’s.

Special attention must be devoted to Şırnak, which the AKP took by 61%. A difference of eight thousand votes separated the AKP and HDP candidate. Şırnak courted great notoriety and controversy with some six thousand votes been brought in from outside by the ruling party.

A further result of these elections was the inability of the propaganda of “survival” to cover up the results of the crisis. 

Despite all the state’s resources and its media hegemony in excess of 90%, the ruling party was unable to win over certain circles that had previously voted for it.

As this article was penned, the MHP appearing to be in the lead in nine of the places where the AKP and MHP fielded separate candidates is another dramatic result from the AKP’s perspective. Making its “survival” dependent on the MHP’s support, the AKP also suffered the painful result of this necessity as these elections unfolded.

One of the most important political snapshots of the election evening was President Erdoğan stating in the first speech he made on the election evening that no fresh elections were in the offing for four and a half years and being obliged to state even with difficulty that they had lost certain towns. Erdoğan, who until now has had no compunctions about embarking on fresh elections with the aim of strengthening his support, either resorting to “victimhood” rhetoric or having polarized the country, this time feels a need to hold his ground.

Alper Taş and his team, this time contesting Beyoğlu as the CHP’s candidate, emerged from the election having narrowed the initial majority. The result obtained by Taş and his team, who opted to concentrate campaigning on the poor parts of Beyoğlu where the AKP is strong, is a result worth studying and developing.

As to the two Felicity Party members who lost their lives as a result of an attack by AKP people in the 31 March elections in which the People’s Alliance employed harsh hate speech as if embarking on a war against the opposition virtually every day, this was a tragic consequence of these elections.

This election also contains messages for the opposition. These results show that it cannot operate as an opposition party on its own and fostering awareness of the relationship between the crisis and the ruling party and giving rise to more serious political results calls for a more serious opposition. This also shows the dramatic aspect of this “love story” just as much as the encouraging aspects of which it speaks from the opposition’s perspective.

We once more experienced what becomes of the election process when data is relayed by a single agency Something absolutely needs to be done to end this.

(Translated by Tim Drayton)